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Data Science in Engineering Process - Product Lifecycle Management

How to develop digital products and solutions for industrial environments?

The Data Science and Engineering Process in PLM.

Huge opportunities for digital products are accompanied by huge risks

Digitalization is about to profoundly change the way we live and work. The increasing availability of data combined with growing storage capacities and computing power make it possible to create data-based products, services, and customer specific solutions to create insight with value for the business. Successful implementation requires systematic procedures for managing and analyzing data, but today such procedures are not covered in the PLM processes.

From our experience in industrial settings, organizations start processing the data that happens to be available. This data often does not fully cover the situation of interest, typically has poor quality, and in turn the results of data analysis are misleading. In industrial environments, the reliability and accuracy of results are crucial. Therefore, an enormous responsibility comes with the development of digital products and solutions. Unless there are systematic procedures in place to guide data management and data analysis in the development lifecycle, many promising digital products will not meet expectations.

Various methodologies exist but no comprehensive framework

Over the last decades, various methodologies focusing on specific aspects of how to deal with data were promoted across industries and academia. Examples are Six Sigma, CRISP-DM, JDM standard, DMM model, and KDD process. These methodologies aim at introducing principles for systematic data management and data analysis. Each methodology makes an important contribution to the overall picture of how to deal with data, but none provides a comprehensive framework covering all the necessary tasks and activities for the development of digital products. We should take these approaches as valuable input and integrate their strengths into a comprehensive Data Science and Engineering framework.

In fact, we believe it is time to establish an independent discipline to address the specific challenges of developing digital products, services and customer specific solutions. We need the same kind of professionalism in dealing with data that has been achieved in the established branches of engineering.

Data Science and Engineering as new discipline

Whereas the implementation of software algorithms is adequately guided by software engineering practices, there is currently no established engineering discipline covering the important tasks that focus on the data and how to develop causal models that capture the real world. We believe the development of industrial grade digital products and services requires an additional process area comprising best practices for data management and data analysis. This process area addresses the specific roles, skills, tasks, methods, tools, and management that are needed to succeed.

Figure: Data Science and Engineering as new engineering discipline

More than in other engineering disciplines, the outputs of Data Science and Engineering are created in repetitions of tasks in iterative cycles. The tasks are therefore organized into workflows with distinct objectives that clearly overlap along the phases of the PLM process.

Feasibility of Objectives
  Understand the business situation, confirm the feasibility of the product idea, clarify the data infrastructure needs, and create transparency on opportunities and risks related to the product idea from the data perspective.
Domain Understanding
  Establish an understanding of the causal context of the application domain, identify the influencing factors with impact on the outcomes in the operational scenarios where the digital product or service is going to be used.
Data Management
  Develop the data management strategy, define policies on data lifecycle management, design the specific solution architecture, and validate the technical solution after implementation.
Data Collection
  Define, implement and execute operational procedures for selecting, pre-processing, and transforming data as basis for further analysis. Ensure data quality by performing measurement system analysis and data integrity checks.
Modeling
  Select suitable modeling techniques and create a calibrated prediction model, which includes fitting the parameters or training the model and verifying the accuracy and precision of the prediction model.
Insight Provision
  Incorporate the prediction model into a digital product or solution, provide suitable visualizations to address the information needs, evaluate the accuracy of the prediction results, and establish feedback loops.

Real business value will be generated only if the prediction model at the core of the digital product reliably and accurately reflects the real world, and the results allow to derive not only correct but also helpful conclusions. Now is the time to embrace the unique chances by establishing professionalism in data science and engineering.

Authors

Peter Louis                               

Peter Louis is working at Siemens Advanta Consulting as Senior Key Expert. He has 25 years’ experience in Project Management, Quality Management, Software Engineering, Statistical Process Control, and various process frameworks (Lean, Agile, CMMI). He is an expert on SPC, KPI systems, data analytics, prediction modelling, and Six Sigma Black Belt.


Ralf Russ    

Ralf Russ works as a Principal Key Expert at Siemens Advanta Consulting. He has more than two decades experience rolling out frameworks for development of industrial-grade high quality products, services, and solutions. He is Six Sigma Master Black Belt and passionate about process transparency, optimization, anomaly detection, and prediction modelling using statistics and data analytics.4


Simple RNN

LSTM back propagation: following the flows of variables

First of all, the summary of this article is: please just download my Power Point slides which I made and be patient, following the equations.

I am not supposed to use so many mathematics when I write articles on Data Science Blog. However using little mathematics when I talk about LSTM backprop is like writing German, never caring about “der,” “die,” “das,” or speaking little English in English classes (which most high school English teachers in Japan do) or writing Japanese without using any Chinese characters (which looks like a terrible handwriting by a drug addict). In short, that is ridiculous. And all the precise equations of LSTM backprop, written on a Blog is not a comfortable thing to see. So basically the whole of this article is an advertisement on my PowerPoint slides, sponsored by DATANOMIQ, and I can just give you some tips to get ready for the most tiresome part of understanding LSTM here.

*This article is the fifth article of “A gentle introduction to the tiresome part of understanding RNN.”

 *In this article “Densely Connected Layers” is written as “DCL,” and “Convolutional Neural Network” as “CNN.”

1. Chain rules

This article is virtually an article on chain rules of differentiation. Even if you have clear understandings on chain rules, I recommend you to take a look at this section. If you have written down all the equations of back propagation of DCL, you would have seen what chain rules are. Even simple chain rules for backprop of normal DCL can be difficult to some people, but when it comes to backprop of LSTM, it is a pure torture.  I think using graphical models would help you understand what chain rules are like. Graphical models are basically used to describe the relations of variables and functions in probabilistic models, so to be exact I am going to use “something like graphical models” in this article. Not that this is a common way to explain chain rules.

First, let’s think about the simplest type of chain rule. Assume that you have a function f=f(x)=f(x(y)), and relations of the functions are displayed as the graphical model at the left side of the figure below. Variables are a type of function, so you should think that every node in graphical models denotes a function. Arrows in purple in the right side of the chart show how information propagate in differentiation.

Next, if you a function f , which has two variances  x_1 and x_2. And both of the variances also share two variances  y_1 and y_2. When you take partial differentiation of f with respect to y_1 or y_2, the formula is a little tricky. Let’s think about how to calculate \frac{\partial f}{\partial y_1}. The variance y_1 propagates to f via x_1 and x_2. In this case the partial differentiation has two terms as below.

In chain rules, you have to think about all the routes where a variance can propagate through. If you generalize chain rules, that is like below, and you need to understand chain rules in this way to understanding any types of back propagation.

The figure above shows that if you calculate partial differentiation of f with respect to y_i, the partial differentiation has n terms in total because y_i propagates to f via n variances. In order to understand backprop of LSTM, you constantly have to care about the flow of variances, which I showed as arrows in purple above.

2. Chain rules in LSTM

I would like you to remember the figure below, which I used in the second article to show how errors propagate backward during backprop of simple RNNs. After forward propagation, first of all, you need to calculate \frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}^{(t)}}, gradients of the error function with respect to parameters, at every time step. But you have to be careful that even though these gradients depend on time steps, the parameters \boldsymbol{\theta} do not depend on time steps.

*As I mentioned in the second article I personally think \frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}^{(t)}} should be rather denoted as (\frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}})^{(t)} because parameters themselves do not depend on time. The textbook by MIT press also partly use the former notation. And you are likely to encounter this type of notation, so I think it is not bad to get ready for both.

The errors at time step (t) propagate backward to all the \boldsymbol{h} ^{(s)}, (s \leq t). Conversely, in order to calculate \frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}^{(t)}} errors flowing from J^{(s)},  (s \geq t). In the chart you need arrows of errors in purple for the gradient in a purple frame, orange arrows for gradients in orange frame, red arrows for gradients in red frame. And you need to sum up \frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}^{(t)}} to calculate \frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}} = \sum_{t}{\frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}^{(t)}}}, and you need this gradient \frac{\partial J}{\partial \boldsymbol{\theta}} to renew parameters, one time.

At an RNN block level, the flows of errors and how to renew parameters are the same in LSTM backprop, but the flow of errors inside each block is much more complicated in LSTM backprop. And in this article and my PowerPoint slides, I use a special notation to denote errors: \delta \star  ^{(t)}= \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \star}

* Again, please be careful of what \delta \star  ^{(t)} means. Neurons depend on time steps, but parameters do not depend on time steps. So if \star are neurons,  \delta \star  ^{(t)}= \frac{\partial J}{ \partial \star ^{(t)}}, but when \star are parameters, \delta \star  ^{(t)}= \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{ \partial \star} should be rather denoted like \delta \star  ^{(t)}= (\frac{\partial J}{ \partial \star ^{(t)}}). In the Space Odyssey paper\boldsymbol{\star} are not used as parameters, but in my PowerPoint slides and some other materials, \boldsymbol{\star} are used also as parameteres.

As I wrote in the last article, you calculate \boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}, \boldsymbol{i}^{(t)}, \boldsymbol{z}^{(t)}, \boldsymbol{o}^{(t)} as below. Unlike the last article, I also added the terms of peephole connections in the equations below, and I also added the variances \bar{\boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}}, \bar{\boldsymbol{i}^{(t)}}, \bar{\boldsymbol{z}^{(t)}}, \bar{\boldsymbol{o}^{(t)}} for convenience.

  • \boldsymbol{\bar{f}}^{(t)}=\boldsymbol{W}_{for} \cdot \boldsymbol{x}^{(t)} + \boldsymbol{R}_{for} \cdot \boldsymbol{y}^{(t-1)} + \boldsymbol{p}_{for}\odot \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)} + \boldsymbol{b}_{for}
  • \boldsymbol{\bar{i}}^{(t)}=\boldsymbol{W}_{in} \cdot \boldsymbol{x}^{(t)} + \boldsymbol{R}_{in} \cdot \boldsymbol{y}^{(t-1)} + \boldsymbol{p}_{in}\odot \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)} + \boldsymbol{b}_{in}
  • \boldsymbol{\bar{z}}^{(t)}=\boldsymbol{W}_z \cdot \boldsymbol{x}^{(t)} + \boldsymbol{R}_z \cdot \boldsymbol{y}^{(t-1)} + \boldsymbol{b}_z
  • \boldsymbol{\bar{o}}^{(t)}=\boldsymbol{W}_{out} \cdot \boldsymbol{x}^{(t)} + \boldsymbol{R}_{out} \cdot \boldsymbol{y}^{(t-1)} + \boldsymbol{p}_{out}\odot \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)} + \boldsymbol{b}_{out}
  • \boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}=\sigma( \boldsymbol{\bar{f}}^{(t)})
  • \boldsymbol{i}^{(t)}=\sigma(\boldsymbol{\bar{i}}^{(t)})
  • \boldsymbol{z}^{(t)}=tanh(\boldsymbol{\bar{z}}^{(t)})
  • \boldsymbol{o}^{(t)}=\sigma(\boldsymbol{\bar{o}}^{(t)})

With  Hadamar product operator, the renewed cell and the output are calculated as below.

  • \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)} = \boldsymbol{z}^{(t)}\odot \boldsymbol{i}^{(t)} + \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)} \odot \boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}
  • \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)} = \boldsymbol{o}^{(t)} \odot tanh(\boldsymbol{c}^{(t)})

In this article I would rather give instructions on how to read my PowerPoint slide. Just as general backprop, you need to calculate gradients of error functions with respect to parameters, such as \delta \boldsymbol{W}_{\star}, \delta \boldsymbol{R}_{\star}, \delta \boldsymbol{p}_{\star}, \delta \boldsymbol{b}_{\star}, where \star is either of \{z, in, for, out \}. And just as backprop of simple RNNs, in order to calculate gradients with respect to parameters, you need to calculate errors of neurons, that is gradients of error functions with respect to neurons, such as \delta \boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}, \delta \boldsymbol{i}^{(t)}, \delta \boldsymbol{z}^{(t)}, \delta \boldsymbol{o}^{(t)}.

*Again and again, keep it in mind that neurons depend on time steps, but parameters do not depend on time steps.

When you calculate gradients with respect to neurons, you can first calculate \delta \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)}, but the equation for this error is the most difficult, so I recommend you to put it aside for now. After calculating \delta \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)}, you can next calculate \delta \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t)}= \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{ \partial \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t)}}. If you see the LSTM block below as a graphical model which I introduced, the information of \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t)} flow like the purple arrows. That means, \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t)} affects J only via \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)}, and this structure is equal to the first graphical model which I have introduced above. And if you calculate \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t)} element-wise, you get the equation \delta \bar{o}_{k}^{(t)}=\frac{\partial J}{\partial \bar{o}_{k}^{(t)}}= \frac{\partial J}{\partial y_{k}^{(t)}} \frac{\partial y_{k}^{(t)}}{\partial \bar{o}_{k}^{(t)}}.

*The k is an index of an element of vectors. If you can calculate element-wise gradients, it is easy to understand that as differentiation of vectors and matrices.

Next you can calculate \delta \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)}, and chain rules are very important in this process. The flow of \delta \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)} to J can be roughly divided into two streams: the one flows to J as \bodlsymbol{y}^{(t)}, and the one flows to J as \bodlsymbol{c}^{(t+1)}. And the stream from \bodlsymbol{c}^{(t)} to \bodlsymbol{y}^{(t)} also have two branches: the one via \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t)} and the one which directly converges as  \bodlsymbol{y}^{(t)}. Just as well, the stream from \bodlsymbol{c}^{(t)} to \bodlsymbol{c}^{(t+1)} also have three branches: the ones via \bar{\boldsymbol{f}}^{(t)}, \bar{\boldsymbol{i}}^{(t)}, and the one which directly converges as \bodlsymbol{c}^{(t+1)}.

If you see see these flows as graphical a graphical model, that would be like the figure below.

According to this graphical model, you can calculate \delta \boldsymbol{c} ^{(t)} element-wise as below.

* TO BE VERY HONEST I still do not fully understand why we can apply chain rules like above to calculate \delta \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)}. When you apply the formula of chain rules, which I showed in the first section, to this case, you have to be careful of where to apply partial differential operators \frac{\partial}{ \partial c_{k}^{(t)}}. In the case above, in the part \frac{\partial y_{k}^{(t)}}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} the partial differential operator only affects tanh(c_{k}^{(t)}) of o_{k}^{(t)} \cdot tanh(c_{k}^{(t)}), and in the part \frac{\partial c_{k}^{(t+1)}}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}}, the partial differential operator \frac{\partial}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} only affects the part c_{k}^{(t)} of the term c^{t}_{k} \cdot f_{k}^{(t+1)}. In the \frac{\partial \bar{o}_{k}^{(t)}}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} part, only (p_{out})_{k} \cdot c_{k}^{(t)},  in the \frac{\partial \bar{i}_{k}^{(t+1)}}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} part, only (p_{in})_{k} \cdot c_{k}^{(t)}, and in the \frac{\partial \bar{f}_{k}^{(t+1)}}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} part, only (p_{in})_{k} \cdot c_{k}^{(t)}. But some other parts, which are not affected by \frac{\partial}{ \partial c_{k}^{(t)}} are also functions of c_{k}^{(t)}. For example o_{k}^{(t)} of o_{k}^{(t)} \cdot tanh(c_{k}^{(t)}) is also a function of c_{k}^{(t)}. And I am still not sure about the logic behind where to affect those partial differential operators.

*But at least, these are the only decent equations for LSTM backprop which I could find, and a frequently cited paper on LSTM uses implementation based on these equations. Computer science is more of practical skills, rather than rigid mathematical logic. It  If you have any comments or advice on this point, please let me know.

Calculating \delta \bar{\boldsymbol{f}}^{(t)}, \delta \bar{\boldsymbol{i}}^{(t)}, \delta \bar{\boldsymbol{z}}^{(t)} are also relatively straigtforward as calculating \delta \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t)}. They all use the first type of chain rule in the first section. Thereby you can get these gradients: \delta \bar{f}_{k}^{(t)}=\frac{\partial J}{ \partial \bar{f}_{k}^{(t)}} =\frac{\partial J}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} \frac{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}}{ \partial \bar{f}_{k}^{(t)}}, \delta \bar{i}_{k}^{(t)}=\frac{\partial J}{\partial \bar{i}_{k}^{(t)}} =\frac{\partial J}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} \frac{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}}{ \partial \bar{i}_{k}^{(t)}}, and \delta \bar{z}_{k}^{(t)}=\frac{\partial J}{\partial \bar{z}_{k}^{(t)}} =\frac{\partial J}{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}} \frac{\partial c_{k}^{(t)}}{ \partial \bar{i}_{k}^{(t)}}.

All the gradients which we have calculated use the error \delta \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)}, but when it comes to calculating \delta \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)}….. I can only say “Please be patient. I did my best in my PowerPoint slides to explain that.” It is not a kind of process which I want to explain on Word Press. In conclusion you get an error like this: \delta \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)}=\frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)}} + \boldsymbol{R}_{for}^{T} \delta \bar{\boldsymbol{f}}^{(t+1)} + \boldsymbol{R}_{in}^{T}\delta \bar{\boldsymbol{i}}^{(t+1)} + \boldsymbol{R}_{out}^{T}\delta \bar{\boldsymbol{o}}^{(t+1)} + \boldsymbol{R}_{z}^{T}\delta \bar{\boldsymbol{z}}^{(t+1)}, and the flows of \boldsymbol{y}^{(t)} are as blow.

Combining the gradients we have got so far, we can calculate gradients with respect to parameters. For concrete results, please check the Space Odyssey paper or my PowerPoint slide.

3. How LSTMs tackle exploding/vanishing gradients problems

*If you are allergic to mathematics, you should not read this section or download my PowerPoint slide.

*Part of this section is more or less subjective, so if you really want to know how LSTM mitigate the problems, I highly recommend you to also refer to other materials. But at least I did my best for this article.

LSTMs do not completely solve, vanishing gradient problems. They mitigate vanishing/exploding gradient problems. I am going to roughly explain why they can tackle those problems. I think you find many explanations on that topic, but many of them seems to have some mathematical mistakes (even the slide used in a lecture in Stanford University) and I could not partly agree with some statements. I also could not find any papers or materials which show the whole picture of how LSTMs can tackle those problems. So in this article I am only going to give instructions on the most mainstream way to explain this topic.

First let’s see how gradients actually “vanish” or “explode” in simple RNNs. As I in the second article of this series, simple RNNs propagate forward as the equations below.

  • \boldsymbol{a}^{(t)} = \boldsymbol{b} + \boldsymbol{W} \cdot \boldsymbol{h}^{(t-1)} + \boldsymbol{U} \cdot \boldsymbol{x}^{(t)}
  • \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}= g(\boldsymbol{a}^{(t)})
  • \boldsymbol{o}^{(t)} = \boldsymbol{c} + \boldsymbol{V} \cdot \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}
  • \hat{\boldsymbol{y}} ^{(t)} = f(\boldsymbol{o}^{(t)})

And every time step, you get an error function J^{(t)}. Let’s consider the gradient of J^{(t)} with respect to \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}, that is the error flowing from J^{(t)} to \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}. This error is the most used to calculate gradients of the parameters.

If you calculate this error more concretely, \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}} = \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}} \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t-1)}} \cdots \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k+2)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k+1)}} \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k+1)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}} = \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}} \prod_{k< s \leq t} \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(s)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(s-1)}}, where \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(s)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(s-1)}} = \boldsymbol{W} ^T \cdot diag(g'(\boldsymbol{b} + \boldsymbol{W}\cdot \boldsymbol{h}^{(s-1)} + \boldsymbol{U}\cdot \boldsymbol{x}^{(s)})) = \boldsymbol{W} ^T \cdot diag(g'(\boldsymbol{a}^{(s)})).

* If you see the figure as a type of graphical model, you should be able to understand the why chain rules can be applied as the equation above.

*According to this paper \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(s)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(s-1)}}  = \boldsymbol{W} ^T \cdot diag(g'(\boldsymbol{a}^{(s)})), but it seems that many study materials and web sites are mistaken in this point.

Hence \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}} = \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}} \prod_{k< s \leq t} \boldsymbol{W} ^T \cdot diag(g'(\boldsymbol{a}^{(s)})) = \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}} (\boldsymbol{W} ^T )^{(t - k)} \prod_{k< s \leq t} diag(g'(\boldsymbol{a}^{(s)})). If you take norms of the members you get an equality \left\lVert \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}} \right\rVert \leq \left\lVert \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}} \right\rVert \left\lVert \boldsymbol{W} ^T \right\rVert ^{(t - k)} \prod_{k< s \leq t} \left\lVert diag(g'(\boldsymbol{a}^{(s)}))\right\rVert. I will not go into detail anymore, but it is known that according to this inequality, multiplication of weight vectors exponentially converge to 0 or to infinite number.

We have seen that the error \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}} is the main factor causing vanishing/exploding gradient problems. In case of LSTM, \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(k)}} is an equivalent. For simplicity, let’s calculate only \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)}}, which is equivalent to \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(t-1)}} of simple RNN backprop.

* Just as I noted above, you have to be careful of which part the partial differential operator \frac{\partial}{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)}} affects in the chain rule above. That is, you need to calculate \frac{\partial}{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)}} (\boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)} \odot \boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}), and the partial differential operator only affects \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)}. I think this is not a correct mathematical notation, but please forgive me for doing this for convenience.

If you continue calculating the equation above more concretely, you get the equation below.

I cannot mathematically explain why, but it is known that this characteristic of gradients of LSTM backprop mitigate the vanishing/exploding gradient problem. We have seen that if you take a norm of \frac{\partial J^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{h}^{(k)}}, that is equal or smaller than repeated multiplication of the norm of the same weight matrix, and that soon leads to vanishing/exploding gradient problem. But according to the equation above, even if you take a norm of repeatedly multiplied \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)}}, its norm cannot be evaluated with a simple value like repeated multiplication of the norm of the same weight matrix. The outputs of each gate are different from time steps to time steps, and that adjust the value of \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)}}.

*I personally guess the item diag(\boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}) is every effective. The unaffected value of can directly diag(\boldsymbol{f}^{(t)}) adjust the value of \frac{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t)}}{\partial \boldsymbol{c}^{(t-1)}}. And as a matter of fact, it is known that performances of LSTM drop the most when you gite rid of forget gates.

When it comes to tackling exploding gradient problems, there is a much easier technique called gradient clipping. This algorithm is very simple: you just have to adjust the size of gradient so that the absolute value of gradient is under a threshold at every time step. Imagine that you decide in which direction to move by calculating gradients, but when the footstep is going to be too big, you just adjust the size of footstep to the threshold size you have set. In a pseudo code, write a gradient clipping part only with two line code as below.

*\boldsymbol{g} is a gradient at the time step threshold is the maximum size of the “step.”

The figure below, cited from a deep learning text from MIT press textbook, is a good and straightforward explanation on gradient clipping.It is known that a strongly nonlinear function, such as error functions of RNN, can have very steep or plain areas. If you artificially visualize the idea in 3-dimensional space, as the surface of a loss function J with two variants w, b, that means the loss function J has plain areas and very steep cliffs like in the figure.Without gradient clipping, at the left side, you can see that the black dot all of a sudden climb the cliff and could jump to an unexpected area. But with gradient clipping, you avoid such “big jumps” on error functions.

Source: Source: Goodfellow and Yoshua Bengio and Aaron Courville, Deep Learning, (2016), MIT Press, 409p

 

I am glad that I have finally finished this article series. I am not sure how many of the readers would have read through all of the articles in this series, including my PowerPoint slides. I bet that is not so many. I spent a great deal of my time for making these contents, but sadly even when I was studying LSTM, it was becoming old-fashioned, at least in natural language processing (NLP) field: a very promising algorithm named Transformer has been replacing the position of LSTM. Deep learning is a very fast changing field. I also would like to make illustrative introductions on attention mechanism in NLP, from seq2seq model to Transformer. And I think LSTM would still remain as one of the algorithms in sequence data processing, such as hidden Hidden Markov model, or particle filter.

Hypothesis Test for real problems

Hypothesis tests are significant for evaluating answers to questions concerning samples of data.

A statistical hypothesis is a belief made about a population parameter. This belief may or might not be right. In other words, hypothesis testing is a proper technique utilized by scientist to support or reject statistical hypotheses. The foremost ideal approach to decide if a statistical hypothesis is correct is examine the whole population.

Since that’s frequently impractical, we normally take a random sample from the population and inspect the equivalent. Within the event sample data set isn’t steady with the statistical hypothesis, the hypothesis is refused.

Types of hypothesis:

There are two sort of hypothesis and both the Null Hypothesis (Ho) and Alternative Hypothesis (Ha) must be totally mutually exclusive events.

• Null hypothesis is usually the hypothesis that the event wont’t happen.

• Alternative hypothesis is a hypothesis that the event will happen.

Why we need Hypothesis Testing?

Suppose a specific cosmetic producing company needs to launch a new Shampoo in the market. For this situation they will follow Hypothesis Testing all together decide the success of new product in the market.

Where likelihood of product being ineffective in market is undertaken as Null Hypothesis and likelihood of product being profitable is undertaken as Alternative Hypothesis. By following the process of Hypothesis testing they will foresee the accomplishment.

How to Calculate Hypothesis Testing?

  • State the two theories with the goal that just one can be correct, to such an extent that the two occasions are totally unrelated.
  • Now figure a study plan, that will lay out how the data will be assessed.
  • Now complete the plan and genuinely investigate the sample dataset.
  • Finally examine the outcome and either accept or reject the null hypothesis.

Another example

Assume, Person have gone after a typing job and he has expressed in the resume that his composing speed is 70 words per minute. The recruiter might need to test his case. On the off chance that he sees his case as adequate, he will enlist him in any case reject him. Thus, he types an example letter and found that his speed is 63 words a minute. Presently, he can settle on whether to employ him or not.  In the event that he meets all other qualification measures. This procedure delineates Hypothesis Testing in layman’s terms.

In statistical terms Hypothesis his typing speed is 70 words per minute is a hypothesis to be tested so-called null hypothesis. Clearly, the alternating hypothesis his composing speed isn’t 70 words per minute.

So, normal composing speed is population parameter and sample composing speed is sample statistics.

The conditions of accepting or rejecting his case is to be chosen by the selection representative. For instance, he may conclude that an error of 6 words is alright to him so he would acknowledge his claim between 64 to 76 words per minute. All things considered, sample speed 63 words per minute will close to reject his case. Furthermore, the choice will be he was producing a fake claim.

In any case, if the selection representative stretches out his acceptance region to positive/negative 7 words that is 63 to 77 words, he would be tolerating his case.

In this way, to finish up, Hypothesis Testing is a procedure to test claims about the population dependent on sample. It is a fascinating reasonable subject with a quite statistical jargon. You have to dive more to get familiar with the details.

Significance Level and Rejection Region for Hypothesis

Type I error probability is normally indicated by α and generally set to 0.05.  The value of α is recognized as the significance level.

The rejection region is the set of sample data that prompts the rejection of the null hypothesis.  The significance level, α, decides the size of the rejection region.  Sample results in the rejection region are labelled statistically significant at level of α .

The impact of differing α is that If α is small, for example, 0.01, the likelihood of a type I error is little, and a ton of sample evidence for the alternative hypothesis is needed before the null hypothesis can be dismissed. Though, when α is bigger, for example, 0.10, the rejection region is bigger, and it is simpler to dismiss the null hypothesis.

Significance from p-values

A subsequent methodology is to evade the utilization of a significance level and rather just report how significant the sample evidence is. This methodology is as of now more widespread.  It is accomplished by method of a p value. P value is gauge of power of the evidence against null hypothesis. It is the likelihood of getting the observed value of test statistic, or value with significantly more prominent proof against null hypothesis (Ho), if the null hypothesis of an investigation question is true. The less significant the p value, the more proof there is supportive of the alternative hypothesis. Sample evidence is measurably noteworthy at the α level just if the p value is less than α. They have an association for two tail tests. When utilizing a confidence interval to playout a two-tailed hypothesis test, reject the null hypothesis if and just if the hypothesized value doesn’t lie inside a confidence interval for the parameter.

Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals

Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are cut out of the same cloth. An event whose 95% confidence interval reject the hypothesis is an event for which p<0.05 under the relating hypothesis test, and the other way around. A p value is letting you know the greatest confidence interval that despite everything prohibits the hypothesis. As such, if p<0.03 against the null hypothesis, that implies that a 97% confidence interval does exclude the null hypothesis.

Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean

We do a t test on the ground that the population mean is unknown. The general purpose is to contrast sample mean with some hypothetical population mean, to assess whether the watched the truth is such a great amount of unique in relation to the hypothesis that we can say with assurance that the hypothetical population mean isn’t, indeed, the real population mean.

Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion

At the point when you have two unique populations Z test facilitates you to choose if the proportion of certain features is the equivalent or not in the two populations. For instance, if the male proportion is equivalent between two nations.

Hypothesis Test for Equal Population Variances

F Test depends on F distribution and is utilized to think about the variance of the two impartial samples. This is additionally utilized with regards to investigation of variance for making a decision about the significance of more than two sample.

T test and F test are totally two unique things. T test is utilized to evaluate the population parameter, for example, population mean, and is likewise utilized for hypothesis testing for population mean. However, it must be utilized when we don’t know about population standard deviation. On the off chance that we know the population standard deviation, we will utilize Z test. We can likewise utilize T statistic to approximate population mean. T statistic is likewise utilised for discovering the distinction in two population mean with the assistance of sample means.

Z statistic or T statistic is utilized to assess population parameters such as population mean and population proportion. It is likewise used for testing hypothesis for population mean and population proportion. In contrast to Z statistic or T statistic, where we manage mean and proportion, Chi Square or F test is utilized for seeing if there is any variance inside the samples. F test is the proportion of fluctuation of two samples.

Conclusion

Hypothesis encourages us to make coherent determinations, the connection among variables, and gives the course to additionally investigate. Hypothesis for the most part results from speculation concerning studied behaviour, natural phenomenon, or proven theory. An honest hypothesis ought to be clear, detailed, and reliable with the data. In the wake of building up the hypothesis, the following stage is validating or testing the hypothesis. Testing of hypothesis includes the process that empowers to concur or differ with the expressed hypothesis.

Data Science – A Beautiful Data Driven Journey

Data Science is a profession related to processing algorithms and extracting deep insights from raw data. It depicts the importance of data and how it can be used in business and to make IT strategies. For recognizing the new ventures available in the market, identifying the patterns and to make better business decisions, data science is of utmost significance.  It is the duty of data scientists to convert raw data into relevant business information. They hold a center stage in developing the data products by carrying out experiments, analyzing them by using scientific methods and using their skill set. Spotting the growing trends and capitalizing on it before the competition to gain advantage.

TRAITS REQUIRED FOR DATA SCIENCE:

Data Scientists are not born intellectuals; they continuously work to gain all the skills expected by the companies as the demand surpasses the supply of applicants. Here are a few skills of data scientists:

  • Curiosity and Intuition to identify the hidden meaning of data and able to visualize.
  • Need to have leadership skills and have a business savvy mind to identify risks and opportunities.
  • A bachelor’s degree in math, IT, statistics along with a letter of recommendation which will help in knowing your acquired range of knowledge.
  • Specialized skills in machine learning, clustering and segmentation, exploration of data, Statistical research which helps in finances and increasing the profits of companies including modeling.
  • Familiarity and strong hold with programming languages such as hadoop, python, perl, R, etc.

BENEFITS OF DATA SCIENCE:

There are many advantages depending on the aim and interest of the company. Sales and Marketing departments, for example collect information from a particular industry and determine which products interest the customer the most and recommend for their production, be it online shopping goods, some online series or which shipment companies are best. They also help in detection of bank fraud. Data Science currently is a raging industry with well paid professionals. The amount of knowledge acquired through this course makes it a bonus for a better and lucrative career.

APPLICATIONS OF DATA SCIENCE:

Data Science has become a significant field in almost all sectors ranging from healthcare, internet searches, e-commerce sites, cell phones by increasing the features. By making use of statistical measures they predict the future events and try to avoid them by giving optimal solutions. Speech recognition has made it easy to search information or do stuff without typing the best eg being google voice, siri. learn data science training in hyderabad

ROLES OF DATA SCIENTIST IN THE INDUSTRY:

This course is a boon for aspirants who wish to build a career in: Data Science, Machine Learning, Data Visualization, Business Intelligence, Big data, etc. This course is a combination of knowledge and money providing both these aspects in abundant measure. There are many boot camps and courses that provide certifications and provide you with the skills. A data scientist must have enough business domain expertise to analyze the risks, profits and achieve the department goals.

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How Data Science Can Benefit Nonprofits

Image Source: https://pixabay.com/vectors/pixel-cells-pixel-creative-commons-3704068/

Data science is the poster child of the 21st century and for good reason. Data-based decisions have streamlined, automated, and made businesses more efficient than ever before, and there are practically no industries that haven’t recognized its immense potential. But when you think of data science application, sectors like marketing, finance, technology, SMEs, and even education are the first that come to mind. There’s one more sector that’s proving to be an untapped market for data—the social sector. At first, one might question why non-profit organizations even need complex data applications, but that’s just it—they don’t. What they really need is data tools that are simple and reliable, because if anything, accountability is the most important component of the way non-profits run.

Challenges for Non-profits and Data Science

If you’re wondering why many non-profits haven’t already hopped onto the data bandwagon, its because in most cases they lack one big thing—quality data.

One reason is that effective data application requires clean data, and heaps of it, something non-profits struggle with. Most don’t sell products or services, and their success is reliant on broad, long-term (sometimes decades) results and changes, which means their outcomes are highly unmeasurable. Metrics and data seem out of place when appealing to donors, who are persuaded more by emotional campaigns. Data collection is also rare, perhaps only being recorded when someone signs up to the program or leaves, and hardly any tracking in between. The result is data that’s too little and unreliable to make effective change.

Perhaps the most important phase, data collection relies heavily on accurate and organized processes. For non-profits that don’t have the resources for accurate and manual record-keeping, clean, and quality data collection is a huge pain point. However, that is an issue now easily avoidable. For instance, avoiding duplicate files, adopting record-keeping methods like off-site and cloud storage, digital retention, and of course back-up plans—are all processes that could save non-profits time, effort, and risk. On the other hand, poor record management has its consequences, namely on things like fund allocation, payroll, budgeting, and taxes. It could lead to financial risk, legal trouble, and data loss — all added worries for already under-resourced non-profit organizations.

But now, as non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and non-profits catch up and invest more in data collection processes, there’s room for data science to make its impact. A growing global movement, ‘Data For Good’ represents individuals, companies, and organizations volunteering to create or use data to help further social causes ad support non-profit organizations. This ‘Data For Good’ movement includes tools for data work that are donated or subsidized, as well as educational programs that serve marginalized communities. As the movement gains momentum, non-profits are seeing data seep into their structures and turn processes around.

How Can Data Do Social Good?

With data science set to take the non-profit sector by storm, let’s look at some of the ways data can do social good:

  1. Improving communication with donors: Knowing when to reach out to your donors is key. In between a meeting? You’re unlikely to see much enthusiasm. Once they’re at home with their families? You may see wonderful results, as pointed out in this Forbes article. The article opines that data can help non-profits understand and communicate with their donors better.
  2. Donor targetting: Cold calls are a hit and miss, and with data on their side, non-profits can discover and define their ideal donor and adapt their messaging to reach out to them for better results.
  3. Improving cost efficiency: Costs are a major priority for non-profits and every penny counts. Data can help decrease costs and streamline financial planning
  4. Increasing new member sign-ups and renewals: Through data, non-profits can reach out to the right people they want on-board, strengthen recruitment processes and keep track of volunteers reaching out to them for future events or recruitment drives.
  5. Modeling and forecasting performance: With predictive modeling tools, non-profits can make data-based decisions on where they should allocate time and money for the future, rather than go on gut instinct.
  6. Measuring return on investment: For a long time, the outcomes of social campaigns have been perceived as intangible and immeasurable—it’s hard to measure empowerment or change. With data, non-profits can measure everything from the amount a fundraiser raised against a goal, the cost of every lead in a lead generation campaign, etc
  7. Streamlining operations: Finally, non-profits can use data tools to streamline their business processes internally and invest their efforts into resources that need it.

It’s true, measuring good and having social change down to a science is a long way off — but data application is a leap forward into a more efficient future for the social sector. With mission-aligned processes, data-driven non-profits can realize their potential, redirect their focus from trivial tasks, and onto the bigger picture to drive true change.

Simple RNN

A brief history of neural nets: everything you should know before learning LSTM

This is not a college course or something on deep learning with strict deadlines for assignments, so let’s take a detour from practical stuff and take a brief look at the history of neural networks.

The history of neural networks is also a big topic, which could be so long that I had to prepare another article series. And usually I am supposed to begin such articles with something like “The term ‘AI’ was first used by John McCarthy in Dartmouth conference 1956…” but you can find many of such texts written by people with much more experiences in this field. Therefore I am going to write this article from my point of view, as an intern writing articles on RNN, as a movie buff, and as one of many Japanese men who spent a great deal of childhood with video games.

We are now in the third AI boom, and some researchers say this boom began in 2006. A professor in my university said there we are now in a kind of bubble economy in machine learning/data science industry, but people used to say “Stop daydreaming” to AI researchers. The second AI winter is partly due to vanishing/exploding gradient problem of deep learning. And LSTM was invented as one way to tackle such problems, in 1997.

1, First AI boom

In the first AI boom, I think people were literally “daydreaming.” Even though the applications of machine learning algorithms were limited to simple tasks like playing chess, checker, or searching route of 2d mazes, and sometimes this time is called GOFAI (Good Old Fashioned AI).

Even today when someone use the term “AI” merely for tasks with neural networks, that amuses me because for me deep learning is just statistically and automatically training neural networks, which are capable of universal approximation, into some classifiers/regressors. Actually the algorithms behind that is quite impressive, but the structure of human brains is much more complicated. The hype of “AI” already started in this first AI boom. Let me take an example of machine translation in this video. In fact the research of machine translation already started in the early 1950s, and of  specific interest in the time was translation between English and Russian due to Cold War. In the first article of this series, I said one of the most famous applications of RNN is machine translation, such as Google Translation, DeepL. They are a type of machine translation called neural machine translation because they use neural networks, especially RNNs. Neural machine translation was an astonishing breakthrough around 2014 in machine translation field. The former major type of machine translation was statistical machine translation, based on statistical language models. And the machine translator in the first AI boom was rule base machine translators, which are more primitive than statistical ones.

The most remarkable invention in this time was of course perceptron by Frank Rosenblatt. Some people say that this is the first neural network. Even though you can implement perceptron with a-few-line codes in Python, obviously they did not have Jupyter Notebook in those days. The perceptron was implemented as a huge instrument named Mark 1 Perceptron, and it was composed of randomly connected wires. I do not precisely know how it works, but it was a huge effort to implement even the most primitive type of neural networks. They needed to use a big lighting fixture to get a 20*20 pixel image using 20*20 array of cadmium sulphide photocells. The research by Rosenblatt, however, was criticized by Marvin Minsky in his book because perceptrons could only be used for linearly separable data. To make matters worse the criticism prevailed as that more general, multi-layer perceptrons were also not useful for linearly inseparable data (as I mentioned in the first article, multi-layer perceptrons, namely normal neural networks,  can be universal approximators, which have potentials to classify/regress various types of complex data). In case you do not know what “linearly separable” means, imagine that there are data plotted on a piece of paper. If an elementary school kid can draw a border line between two clusters of the data with a ruler and a pencil on the paper, the 2d data is “linearly separable”….

With big disappointments to the research on “electronic brains,” the budget of AI research was reduced and AI research entered its first winter.

I think  the frame problem(1969),  by John McCarthy and Patrick J. Hayes, is also an iconic theory in the end of the first AI boom. This theory is known as a story of creating a robot trying to pull out its battery on a wheeled wagon in a room. The first prototype of the robot, named R1, naively tried to pull out the wagon form the room, and the bomb exploded. The problems was obvious: R1 was not programmed to consider the risks by taking each action, so the researchers made the next prototype named R1D1, which was programmed to consider the potential risks of taking each action. When R1D1 tried to pull out the wagon, it realized the risk of pulling the bomb together with the battery. But soon it started considering all the potential risks, such as the risk of the ceiling falling down, the distance between the wagon and all the walls, and so on, when the bomb exploded. The next problem was also obvious: R1D1 was not programmed to distinguish if the factors are relevant of irrelevant to the main purpose, and the next prototype R2D1 was programmed to do distinguish them. This time, R2D1 started thinking about “whether the factor is  irrelevant to the main purpose,” on every factor measured, and again the bomb exploded. How can we get a perfect AI, R2D2?

The situation of mentioned above is a bit extreme, but it is said AI could also get stuck when it try to take some super simple actions like finding a number in a phone book and make a phone call. It is difficult for an artificial intelligence to decide what is relevant and what is irrelevant, but humans will not get stuck with such simple stuff, and sometimes the frame problem is counted as the most difficult and essential problem of developing AI. But personally I think the original frame problem was unreasonable in that McCarthy, in his attempts to model the real world, was inflexible in his handling of the various equations involved, treating them all with equal weight regardless of the particular circumstances of a situation. Some people say that McCarthy, who was an advocate for AI, also wanted to see the field come to an end, due to its failure to meet the high expectations it once aroused.

Not only the frame problem, but also many other AI-related technological/philosophical problems have been proposed, such as Chinese room (1980), the symbol grounding problem (1990), and they are thought to be as hardships in inventing artificial intelligence, but I omit those topics in this article.

*The name R2D2 did not come from the famous story of frame problem. The story was Daniel Dennett first proposed the story of R2D2 in his paper published in 1984. Star Wars was first released in 1977. It is said that the name R2D2 came from “Reel 2, Dialogue 2,” which George Lucas said while film shooting. And the design of C3PO came from Maria in Metropolis(1927). It is said that the most famous AI duo in movie history was inspired by Tahei and Matashichi in The Hidden Fortress(1958), directed by Kurosawa Akira.

Interestingly, in the end of the first AI boom, 2001: A Space Odyssey, directed by Stanley Kubrick, was released in 1968. Unlike conventional fantasylike AI characters, for example Maria in Metropolis(1927), HAL 9000 was portrayed as a very realistic AI, and the movie already pointed out the risk of AI being insane when it gets some commands from several users. HAL 9000 still has been a very iconic character in AI field. For example when you say some quotes from 2001: A Space Odyssey to Siri you get some parody responses. I also thin you should keep it in mind that in order to make an AI like HAL 9000 come true, for now RNNs would be indispensable in many ways: you would need RNNs for better voice recognition, better conversational system, and for reading lips.

*Just as you cannot understand Monty Python references in Python official tutorials without watching Monty Python and the Holy Grail, you cannot understand many parodies in AI contexts without watching 2001: A Space Odyssey. Even thought the movie had some interview videos with some researchers and some narrations, Stanley Kubrick cut off all the footage and made the movie very difficult to understand. Most people did not or do not understand that it is a movie about aliens who gave homework of coming to Jupiter to human beings.

2, Second AI boom/winter

I am not going to write about the second AI boom in detail, but at least you should keep it in mind that convolutional neural network(CNN) is a keyword in this time. Neocognitron, an artificial model of how sight nerves perceive thing, was invented by Kunihiko Fukushima in 1980, and the model is said to be the origin on CNN. And Neocognitron got inspired by the Hubel and Wiesel’s research on sight nerves. In 1989, a group in AT & T Bell Laboratory led by Yann LeCun invented the first practical CNN to read handwritten digit.

Another turning point in this second AI boom was that back propagation algorithm was discovered, and the CNN by LeCun was also trained with back propagation. LeCun made a deep neural networks with some layers in 1998 for more practical uses.

But his research did not gain so much attention like today, because AI research entered its second winter at the beginning of the 1990s, and that was partly due to vanishing/exploding gradient problem of deep learning. People knew that neural networks had potentials of universal approximation, but when they tried to train naively stacked neural nets the gradients, which you need to train neural networks, exponentially increased/decreased. Even though the CNN made by LeCun was the first successful case of “deep” neural nets which did not suffer from the vanishing/exploding gradient problem, deep learning research also stagnated in this time.

The ultimate goal of this article series is to understand LSTM at a more abstract/mathematical level because it is one of the practical RNNs, but the idea of LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) itself was already proposed in 1997 as an RNN algorithm to tackle vanishing gradient problem. (Exploding gradient problem is solved with a technique named gradient clipping, and this is easier than techniques for preventing vanishing gradient problems. I am also going to explain it in the next article.) After that some other techniques like introducing forget gate, peephole connections, were discovered, but basically it took some 20 years till LSTM got attentions like today. The reasons for that is lack of hardware and data sets, and that was also major reasons for the second AI winter.

In the 1990s, the mid of second AI winter, the Internet started prevailing for commercial uses. I think one of the iconic events in this time was the source codes WWW(World Wide Web) were announced in 1993. Some of you might still remember that you little by little became able to transmit more data online in this time. That means people came to get more and more access to various datasets in those days, which is indispensable for machine learning tasks.

After all, we could not get HAL 9000 by the end of 2001, but instead we got Xbox console.

3, Video game industry and GPU

Even though research on neural networks stagnated in the 1990s the same period witnessed an advance in the computation of massive parallel linear transformations, due to their need in fields such as image processing.

Computer graphics move or rotate in 3d spaces, and that is also linear transformations. When you think about a car moving in a city, it is convenient to place the car, buildings, and other objects on a fixed 3d space. But when you need to make computer graphics of scenes of the city from a view point inside the car, you put a moving origin point in the car and see the city. The spatial information of the city is calculated as vectors from the moving origin point. Of course this is also linear transformations. Of course I am not talking about a dot or simple figures moving in the 3d spaces. Computer graphics are composed of numerous plane panels, and each of them have at least three vertexes, and they move on 3d spaces. Depending on viewpoints, you need project the 3d graphics in 3d spaces on 2d spaces to display the graphics on devices. You need to calculate which part of the panel is projected to which pixel on the display, and that is called rasterization. Plus, in order to get photophotorealistic image, you need to think about how lights from light sources reflect on the panel and projected on the display. And you also have to put some textures on groups of panels. You might also need to change color spaces, which is also linear transformations.

My point is, in short, you really need to do numerous linear transformations in parallel in image processing.

When it comes to the use of CGI in movies,  two pioneer movies were released during this time: Jurassic Park in 1993, and Toy Story in 1995. It is famous that Pixar used to be one of the departments in ILM(Industrial Light and Magic), founded by George Lucas, and Steve Jobs bought the department. Even though the members in Pixar had not even made a long feature film in their lives, after trial and errors, they made the first CGI animated feature movie. On the other hand, in order to acquire funds for the production of Schindler’s List(1993), Steven Spielberg took on Jurassic Park(1993), consequently changing the history of CGI through this “side job.”

*I think you have realized that George Lucas is mentioned almost everywhere in this article. His influences on technologies are not only limited to image processing, but also sound measuring system, nonlinear editing system. Photoshop was also originally developed under his company. I need another article series for this topic, but maybe not in Data Science Blog.

Considering that the first wire-frame computer graphics made and displayed by computers appeared in the scene of displaying the wire frame structure of Death Star in a war room, in Star Wars: A New Hope, the development of CGI was already astonishing at this time. But I think deep learning owe its development more to video game industry.

*I said that the Death Star scene is the first use of graphics made and DISPLAYED by computers, because I have to say one of the first graphics in movie MADE by computer dates back to the legendary title sequence of Vertigo(1958).

When it comes to 3D video games the processing unit has to constantly deal with real time commands from controllers. It is famous that GPU was originally specifically designed for plotting computer graphics. Video game market is the biggest in entertainment industry in general, and it is said that the quality of computer graphics have the strongest correlation with video games sales, therefore enhancing this quality is a priority for the video game console manufacturers.

One good example to see how much video games developed is comparing original Final Fantasy 7 and the remake one. The original one was released in 1997, the same year as when LSTM was invented. And recently  the remake version of Final Fantasy 7 was finally released this year. The original one was also made with very big budget, and it was divided into three CD-ROMs. The original one was also very revolutionary given that the former ones of Final Fantasy franchise were all 2d video retro style video games. But still the computer graphics looks like polygons, and in almost all scenes the camera angle was fixed in the original one. On the other hand the remake one is very photorealistic and you can move the angle of the camera as you want while you play the video game.

There were also fierce battles by graphic processor manufacturers in computer video game market in the 1990s, but personally I think the release of Xbox console was a turning point in the development of GPU. To be concrete, Microsoft adopted a type of NV20 GPU for Xbox consoles, and that left some room of programmability for developers. The chief architect of NV20, which was released under the brand of GeForce3, said making major changes in the company’s graphic chips was very risky. But that decision opened up possibilities of uses of GPU beyond computer graphics.

I think that the idea of a programmable GPU provided other scientific fields with more visible benefits after CUDA was launched. And GPU gained its position not only in deep learning, but also many other fields including making super computers.

*When it comes to deep learning, even GPUs have strong rivals. TPU(Tensor Processing Unit) made by Google, is specialized for deep learning tasks, and have astonishing processing speed. And FPGA(Field Programmable Gate Array), which was originally invented customizable electronic circuit, proved to be efficient for reducing electricity consumption of deep learning tasks.

*I am not so sure about this GPU part. Processing unit, including GPU is another big topic, that is beyond my capacity to be honest.  I would appreciate it if you could share your view and some references to confirm your opinion, on the comment section or via email.

*If you are interested you should see this video of game fans’ reactions to the announcement of Final Fantasy 7. This is the industry which grew behind the development of deep learning, and many fields where you need parallel computations owe themselves to the nerds who spent a lot of money for video games, including me.

*But ironically the engineers who invented the GPU said they did not play video games simply because they were busy. If you try to study the technologies behind video games, you would not have much time playing them. That is the reality.

We have seen that the in this second AI winter, Internet and GPU laid foundation of the next AI boom. But still the last piece of the puzzle is missing: let’s look at the breakthrough which solved the vanishing /exploding gradient problem of deep learning in the next section.

4, Pretraining of deep belief networks: “The Dawn of Deep Learning”

Some researchers say the invention of pretraining of deep belief network by Geoffrey Hinton was a breakthrough which put an end to the last AI winter. Deep belief networks are different type of networks from the neural networks we have discussed, but their architectures are similar to those of the neural networks. And it was also unknown how to train deep belief nets when they have several layers. Hinton discovered that training the networks layer by layer in advance can tackle vanishing gradient problems. And later it was discovered that you can do pretraining neural networks layer by layer with autoencoders.

*Deep belief network is beyond the scope of this article series. I have to talk about generative models, Boltzmann machine, and some other topics.

The pretraining techniques of neural networks is not mainstream anymore. But I think it is very meaningful to know that major deep learning techniques such as using ReLU activation functions, optimization with Adam, dropout, batch normalization, came up as more effective algorithms for deep learning after the advent of the pretraining techniques, and now we are in the third AI boom.

In the next next article we are finally going to work on LSTM. Specifically, I am going to offer a clearer guide to a well-made paper on LSTM, named “LSTM: A Search Space Odyssey.”

* I make study materials on machine learning, sponsored by DATANOMIQ. I do my best to make my content as straightforward but as precise as possible. I include all of my reference sources. If you notice any mistakes in my materials, including grammatical errors, please let me know (email: yasuto.tamura@datanomiq.de). And if you have any advice for making my materials more understandable to learners, I would appreciate hearing it.

Data Analytics and Mining for Dummies

Data Analytics and Mining is often perceived as an extremely tricky task cut out for Data Analysts and Data Scientists having a thorough knowledge encompassing several different domains such as mathematics, statistics, computer algorithms and programming. However, there are several tools available today that make it possible for novice programmers or people with no absolutely no algorithmic or programming expertise to carry out Data Analytics and Mining. One such tool which is very powerful and provides a graphical user interface and an assembly of nodes for ETL: Extraction, Transformation, Loading, for modeling, data analysis and visualization without, or with only slight programming is the KNIME Analytics Platform.

KNIME, or the Konstanz Information Miner, was developed by the University of Konstanz and is now popular with a large international community of developers. Initially KNIME was originally made for commercial use but now it is available as an open source software and has been used extensively in pharmaceutical research since 2006 and also a powerful data mining tool for the financial data sector. It is also frequently used in the Business Intelligence (BI) sector.

KNIME as a Data Mining Tool

KNIME is also one of the most well-organized tools which enables various methods of machine learning and data mining to be integrated. It is very effective when we are pre-processing data i.e. extracting, transforming, and loading data.

KNIME has a number of good features like quick deployment and scaling efficiency. It employs an assembly of nodes to pre-process data for analytics and visualization. It is also used for discovering patterns among large volumes of data and transforming data into more polished/actionable information.

Some Features of KNIME:

  • Free and open source
  • Graphical and logically designed
  • Very rich in analytics capabilities
  • No limitations on data size, memory usage, or functionalities
  • Compatible with Windows ,OS and Linux
  • Written in Java and edited with Eclipse.

A node is the smallest design unit in KNIME and each node serves a dedicated task. KNIME contains graphical, drag-drop nodes that require no coding. Nodes are connected with one’s output being another’s input, as a workflow. Therefore end-to-end pipelines can be built requiring no coding effort. This makes KNIME stand out, makes it user-friendly and make it accessible for dummies not from a computer science background.

KNIME workflow designed for graduate admission prediction

KNIME workflow designed for graduate admission prediction

KNIME has nodes to carry out Univariate Statistics, Multivariate Statistics, Data Mining, Time Series Analysis, Image Processing, Web Analytics, Text Mining, Network Analysis and Social Media Analysis. The KNIME node repository has a node for every functionality you can possibly think of and need while building a data mining model. One can execute different algorithms such as clustering and classification on a dataset and visualize the results inside the framework itself. It is a framework capable of giving insights on data and the phenomenon that the data represent.

Some commonly used KNIME node groups include:

  • Input-Output or I/O:  Nodes in this group retrieve data from or to write data to external files or data bases.
  • Data Manipulation: Used for data pre-processing tasks. Contains nodes to filter, group, pivot, bin, normalize, aggregate, join, sample, partition, etc.
  • Views: This set of nodes permit users to inspect data and analysis results using multiple views. This gives a means for truly interactive exploration of a data set.
  • Data Mining: In this group, there are nodes that implement certain algorithms (like K-means clustering, Decision Trees, etc.)

Comparison with other tools 

The first version of the KNIME Analytics Platform was released in 2006 whereas Weka and R studio were released in 1997 and 1993 respectively. KNIME is a proper data mining tool whereas Weka and R studio are Machine Learning tools which can also do data mining. KNIME integrates with Weka to add machine learning algorithms to the system. The R project adds statistical functionalities as well. Furthermore, KNIME’s range of functions is impressive, with more than 1,000 modules and ready-made application packages. The modules can be further expanded by additional commercial features.

Severity of lockdowns and how they are reflected in mobility data

The global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of March 2020 forced majority of countries to introduce measures to contain the virus. The governments found themselves facing a very difficult tradeoff between limiting the spread of the virus and bearing potentially catastrophic economical costs of a lockdown. Notably, considering the level of globalization today, the response of countries varied a lot in severity and response latency. In the overwhelming amount of media and social media information feed a lot of misinformation and anecdotal evidence surfaced and remained in people’s mind. In this article, I try to have a more systematic view on the topics of severity of response from governments and change in people’s mobility due to the pandemic.

I want to look at several countries with different approach to restraining the spread of the virus. I will look at governmental regulations, when, and how they were introduced. For that I am referring to an index called Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT)[1]. The OxCGRT follows, records, and rates the actions taken by governments, that are available publicly. However, looking just at the regulations and taking them for granted does not provide that we have the whole picture. Therefore, equally interesting is the investigation of how the recommended levels of self-isolation and social distancing is reflected in the mobility data and we will look at it first.

The mobility dataset

The mobility data used in this article was collected by Google and made freely accessible[2]. The data reflects how the number of visits and their length changed as compared to a baseline from before the pandemic. The baseline is the median value for the corresponding day of the week in the period from 3.01.2020 – 6.02.2020. The dataset contains data in six categories. Here we look at only 4 of them: public transport stations, places of residence, workplaces, and retail/recreation (including shopping centers, libraries, gastronomy, culture). The analysis intentionally omits parks (public beaches, gardens etc.) and grocery/pharmacy category. Mobility in parks is excluded due to huge weather change confound. The baseline was created in winter and increased/decreased (depending on the hemisphere) activity in parks is expected as the weather changes. It would be difficult to detangle tis change from the change caused by the pandemic without referring to a different baseline. The grocery shops and pharmacies are excluded because the measures regarding the shopping were very similar across the countries.

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic a lot of anecdotal information surfaced, that some countries, like Sweden, acted completely against the current by not introducing a lockdown. It was reported that there were absolutely no restrictions and Sweden can be basically treated as a control group for comparing the different approaches to lockdown on the spread of the coronavirus. Looking at the mobility data (below), we can see however, that there was a change in the mobility of Swedish citizens in comparison to the baseline.

Fig. 1 Moving average (+/- 6 days) of the mobility data in Sweden in four categories.

Fig. 1 Moving average (+/- 6 days) of the mobility data in Sweden in four categories.

Looking at the change in mobility in Sweden, we can see that the change in the residential areas is small, but it is indicating some change in behavior. A change in the retail and recreational sector is more noticeable. Most interestingly it is approaching the baseline levels at the beginning of June. The most substantial changes, however, are in the workplaces and transit categories. They are also much slower to come back to the baseline, although a trend in that direction starts to be visible.

Next, let us have a look at the change in mobility in selected countries, separately for each category. Here, I compare Germany, Sweden, Italy, and New Zealand. (To see the mobility data for other countries visit https://covid19.datanomiq.de/#section-mobility).

Fig. 2 Moving average (+/- 6 days) of the mobility data.

Fig. 2 Moving average (+/- 6 days) of the mobility data.

Looking at the data, we can see that the change in mobility in Germany and Sweden was somewhat similar in orders of magnitude, in comparison to changes in mobility in countries like Italy and New Zealand. Without a doubt, the behavior in Sweden changed the least from the baseline in all the categories. Nevertheless, claiming that people’s reaction to the pandemic in Sweden in Germany were polar opposites is not necessarily correct. The biggest discrepancy between Sweden and Germany is in the retail and recreation sector out of all categories presented. The changes in Italy and New Zealand reached very comparable levels, but in New Zealand they seem to be much more dynamic, especially in approaching the baseline levels again.

The government response dataset

Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker records regulations from number of countries, rates them and categorizes into a few indices. The number between 1 and 100 reflects the level of the action taken by a government. Here, I focus on the Containment and Health sub-index that includes 11 indicators from categories: containment and closure policies and health system policies[3]. The actions included in the index are for example: school and workplace closing, restrictions on public events, travel restrictions, public information campaigns, testing policy and contact tracing.

Below, we look at a plot with the Containment and Health sub-index value for the four aforementioned countries. Data and documentation is available here[4]

Fig. 3 Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, the Containment and Health sub-index.

Fig. 3 Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, the Containment and Health sub-index.

Here the difference between Sweden and the other countries that we are looking at becomes more apparent. Nevertheless, the Swedish government did take some measures in order to condemn the spread of the SARS-CoV-2. At the highest, the index reached value 45 points in Sweden, 73 in Germany, 92 in Italy and 94 in New Zealand. In all these countries except for Sweden the index started dropping again, while the drop is the most dynamic in New Zealand and the index has basically reached the level of Sweden.

Conclusions

As we have hopefully seen, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic from governments differed substantially, as well as the resulting change in mobility behavior of the inhabitants did. However, the discrepancies were probably not as big as reported in the media.

The overwhelming presence of the social media could have blown some of the mentioned differences out of proportion. For example, the discrepancy in the mobility behavior between Sweden and Germany was biggest in recreation sector, that involves cafes, restaurants, cultural resorts, and shopping centers. It is possible, that those activities were the ones that people in lockdown missed the most. Looking at Swedes, who were participating in them it was easy to extrapolate on the overall landscape of the response to the virus in the country.

It is very hard to say which of the world country’s approach will bring the best effects for the people’s well-being and the economies. The ongoing pandemic will remain a topic of extensive research for many years to come. We will (most probably) eventually find out which approach to the lockdown was the most optimal (or at least come close to finding out). For the time being, it is however important to remember that there are many factors in play and looking into one type of data might be misleading. Comparing countries with different history, weather, political and economic climate, or population density might be misleading as well. But it is still more insightful than not looking into the data at all.

[1] Hale, Thomas, Sam Webster, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, and Beatriz Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government. Data use policy: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY standard.

[2] Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports”. https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ retrived: 04.06.2020

[3] See documentation https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/tree/master/documentation

[4] https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker  retrieved on 04.06.2020

Data Analytics & Artificial Intelligence Trends in 2020

Artificial intelligence has infiltrated all aspects of our lives and brought significant improvements.

Although the first thing that comes to most people’s minds when they think about AI are humanoid robots or intelligent machines from sci-fi flicks, this technology has had the most impressive advancements in the field of data science.

Big data analytics is what has already transformed the way we do business as it provides an unprecedented insight into a vast amount of unstructured, semi-structured, and structured data by analyzing, processing, and interpreting it.

Data and AI specialists and researchers are likely to have a field day in 2020, so here are some of the most important trends in this industry.

1. Predictive Analytics

As its name suggests, this trend will be all about using gargantuan data sets in order to predict outcomes and results.

This practice is slated to become one of the biggest trends in 2020 because it will help businesses improve their processes tremendously. It will find its place in optimizing customer support, pricing, supply chain, recruitment, and retail sales, to name just a few.

For example, Amazon has already been leveraging predictive analytics for its dynamic pricing model. Namely, the online retail giant uses this technology to analyze the demand for a particular product, competitors’ prices, and a number of other parameters in order to adjust its price.

According to stats, Amazon changes prices 2.5 million times a day so that a particular product’s cost fluctuates and changes every 10 minutes, which requires an extremely predictive analytics algorithm.

2. Improved Cybersecurity

In a world of advanced technologies where IoT and remotely controlled devices having top-notch protection is of critical importance.

Numerous businesses and individuals have fallen victim to ruthless criminals who can steal sensitive data or wipe out entire bank accounts. Even some big and powerful companies suffered huge financial and reputation blows due to cyber attacks they were subjected to.

This kind of crime is particularly harsh for small and medium businesses. Stats say that 60% of SMBs are forced to close down after being hit by such an attack.

AI again takes advantage of its immense potential for analyzing and processing data from different sources quickly and accurately. That’s why it’s capable of assisting cybersecurity specialists in predicting and preventing attacks.

In case that an attack emerges, the response time is significantly shorter, so that the worst-case scenario can be avoided.

When we’re talking about avoiding security risks, AI can improve enterprise risk management, too, by providing guidance and assisting risk management professionals.

3. Digital Workers

In 2020, an army of digital workers will transform the traditional workspace and take productivity to a whole new level.

Virtual assistants and chatbots are some examples of already existing digital workers, but it will be even more of them. According to research, this trend is one the rise, as it’s expected that AI software and robots will increase by 50% by 2022.

Robots will take over even some small tasks in the office. The point is to streamline the entire business process, and that can be achieved by training robots to perform small and simple tasks like human employees. The only difference will be that digital workers will do that faster and without any mistakes.

4. Hybrid Workforce

Many people worry that AI and automation will steal their jobs and render them unemployed.

Even the stats are bleak – AI will eliminate 1.8 million jobs. But, on the other hand, it will create 2.3 million new jobs.

So, our future is actually AI and humans working together, and that’s what will become the business normalcy in 2020.

Robotic process automation and different office digital workers will be in charge of tedious and repetitive tasks, while more sophisticated issues that require critical thinking and creativity will be human workers’ responsibility.

One of the most important things about creating this hybrid workforce is for businesses to openly discuss it with their employees and explain how these new technologies will be used. A regular workforce has to know that they will be working alongside machines whose job will be to speed up the processes and cut costs.

5. Process Intelligence

This AI trend will allow businesses to gain insight into their processes by using all the information contained in their system and creating an overall, real-time, and accurate visual model of all the processes.

What’s great about it is that it’s possible to see these processes from different perspectives – across departments, functions, staff, and locations.

With such a visual model, it’s possible to properly analyze these processes, identify potential bottlenecks, and eliminate them before they even begin to emerge.

Besides, as this is AI and data analytics at their best, this technology will also facilitate decision-making by predicting the future results of tech investments.

Needless to say, Process Intelligence will become an enterprise standard very soon, thanks to its ability to provide a better understanding and effective management of end-to-end processes.

As you can see, in 2020, these two advanced technologies will continue to evolve and transform the business landscape and change it for the better.

Interview – There is no stand-alone strategy for AI, it must be part of the company-wide strategy

Ronny FehlingRonny Fehling is Partner and Associate Director for Artificial Intelligence as the Boston Consulting Group GAMMA. With more than 20 years of continually progressive experience in leading business and technology innovation, spearheading digital transformation, and aligning the corporate strategy with Artificial Intelligence he industry-leading organizations to grow their top-line and kick-start their digital transformation.

Ronny Fehling is furthermore speaker of the Predictive Analytics World for Industry 4.0 in May 2020.

Data Science Blog: Mr. Fehling, you are consulting companies and business leaders about AI and how to get started with it. AI as a definition is often misleading. How do you define AI?

This is a good question. I think there are two ways to answer this:

From a technical definition, I often see expressions about “simulation of human intelligence” and “acting like a human”. I find using these terms more often misleading rather than helpful. I studied AI back when it wasn’t yet “cool” and still middle of the AI winter. And yes, we have much more compute power and access to data, but we also think about data in a very different way. For me, I typically distinguish between machine learning, which uses algorithms and statistical methods to identify patterns in data, and AI, which for me attempts to interpret the data in a given context. So machine learning can help me identify and analyze frequency patterns in text and even predict the next word I will type based on my history. AI will help me identify ‘what’ I’m writing about – even if I don’t explicitly name it. It can tell me that when I’m asking “I’m looking for a place to stay” that I might want to see a list of hotels around me. In other words: machine learning can detect correlations and similar patterns, AI uses machine learning to generate insights.

I always wondered why top executives are so frequently asking about the definition of AI because at first it seemed to me not as relevant to the discussion on how to align AI with their corporate strategy. However, I started to realize that their question is ultimately about “What is AI and what can it do for me?”.

For me, AI can do three things really good, which humans cannot really do and previous approaches couldn’t cope with:

  1. Finding similar patterns in historical data. Imagine 20 years of data like maintenance or repair documents of a manufacturing plant. Although they describe work done on a multitude of products due to a multitude of possible problems, AI can use this to look for a very similar situation based on a current problem description. This can be used to identify a common root cause as well as a common solution approach, saving valuable time for the operation.
  2. Finding correlations across time or processes. This is often used in predictive maintenance use cases. Here, the AI tries to see what similar events happen typically at some time before a failure happen. This way, it can alert the operator much earlier about an impending failure, say due to a change in the vibration pattern of the machine.
  3. Finding an optimal solution path based on many constraints. There are many problems in the business world, where choosing the optimal path based on complex situations is critical. Let’s say that suddenly a severe weather warning at an airport forces an airline to have to change their scheduling because of a reduced airport capacity. Delays for some aircraft can cause disruptions because passengers or personnel not being able to connect anymore. Knowing which aircraft to delay, which to cancel, which to switch while causing the minimal amount of disruption to passengers, crew, maintenance and ground-crew is something AI can help with.

The key now is to link these fundamental capabilities with the business context of the company and how it can ultimately help transform.

Data Science Blog: Companies are still starting with their own company-wide data strategy. And now they are talking about AI strategies. Is that something which should be handled separately?

In my experience – both based on having seen the implementations of several corporate data strategies as well as my upbringing at Oracle – the data strategy and AI strategy are co-dependent and cannot be separated. Very often I hear from clients that they think they first need to bring their data in order before doing AI project. And yes, without good data access, AI cannot really work. In fact, most of the time spent on AI is spent on processing, cleansing, understanding and contextualizing the data. However, you cannot really know what data will be needed in which form without knowing what you want to use it for. This is why strategies that handle data and AI separately mostly fail and generate huge costs.

Data Science Blog: What are the important steps for developing a good data strategy? Is there something like a general approach?

In my eyes, the AI strategy defines the data strategy step by step as more use cases are implemented. Rather than focusing too quickly at how to get all corporate data into a data lake, it will be much more important to start creating a use-case, technology and data governance. This governance has to be established once the AI strategy is starting to mature to enable the scale up and productization. At the beginning is to find the (very few) use-cases that can serve as light house projects to demonstrate (1) value impact, (2) a way to go from MVP to Pilot, and (3) how to address the data challenge. This will then more naturally identify the elements of governance, data access and technology that are required.

Data Science Blog: What are the most common questions from business leaders to you regarding AI? Why do they hesitate to get started?

By far it the most common question I get is: how do I get started? The hesitations often come from multiple sources like: “We don’t have the talent in house to do AI”, “Our data is not good enough”, “We don’t know which use-case to start with”, “It’s not easy for us to embrace agile and failure culture because our products are mission critical”, “We don’t know how much value this can bring us”.

Data Science Blog: Most managers prefer to start small and with lower risk. They seem to postpone bigger ideas to a later stage, at least some milestones should be reached. Is that a good idea or should they think bigger?

AI is often associated (rightfully so) with a new way of working – agile and embracing failures. Similarly, there is also the perception of significant cost to starting with AI (talent, technology, data). These perceptions often lead managers wanting to start with several smaller ambition use-cases where failure isn’t that grave. Once they have proven itself somehow, they would then move on to bigger projects. The problem with this strategy is on the one side that you fragment your few precious AI resources on too many projects and at the same time you cannot really demonstrate an impact since the projects weren’t chosen based on their impact potential.

The AI pioneers typically were successful by “thinking big, starting small and scaling fast”. You start by assessing the value potential of a use-case, for example: my current OEE (Overall Equipment Efficiency) is at 65%. There is an addressable loss of 25% which would grow my top line by $X. With the help of AI experts, you then create a hypothesis of how you think you can reduce that loss. This might be by choosing one specific equipment and 50% of the addressable loss. This is now the measure against which you define your failure or non-failure criteria. Once you have proven an MVP that can solve this loss, you scale up by piloting it in real-life setting and then scaling it to all the equipment. At every step of this process, you have a failure criterion that is measured by the impact value.


Virtual Edition, 11-12 MAY, 2020

The premier machine learning
conference for industry 4.0

This year Predictive Analytics World for Industry 4.0 runs alongside Deep Learning World and Predictive Analytics World for Healthcare.